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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."