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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.